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US Joint Forces Command and global strategy

This, a strategic study by the US Joint Forces Command, is a thoroughly fascinating read.  The part of immediate interest  is of course the section on energy, and the prediction of oil shortages made already in the introduction by the commander of the USJFC General Mattis.

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.”

And then this:

“While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.”

The rest of the text is equally interesting however. For starters, Mattis is a Marine, and the Marines seem to have been very interested in Fourth Generation Warfare lately. There are plenty of Sun Tzu references throughout, and the depth of the analysis is fascinating.

Joint Operating Enviornment 2010

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